{"id":9212,"date":"2015-04-12T17:14:01","date_gmt":"2015-04-12T17:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/visakanv.com\/1000\/?p=9212"},"modified":"2019-09-25T19:17:16","modified_gmt":"2019-09-25T19:17:16","slug":"0293-im-bad-at-estimating-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/visakanv.com\/1000\/0293-im-bad-at-estimating-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"0293 \u2013 get better at estimating (start small)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I would like to do 9 more vomits before I go to bed tonight, though I recognize that that&#8217;s probably not very feasible. I suppose this is a part of my regular overestimation of myself, which is I think going to be the subject of this particular vomit.<\/p>\n<p>I have always been very bad at estimating things\u2013 particularly at estimating my own capacity for doing things, because I tend to assume that I&#8217;ll be completely productive the whole time I&#8217;m going to be doing something\u2013 writing at full steam for hours and hours without having to break to rest or sleep or anything of the sort. I also tend to underestimate the complexity and difficulty of tasks. I want to say this is because I&#8217;m used to being able to do things, but really I&#8217;m not sure.<\/p>\n<p>To get a little meta about it, it seems like I&#8217;ve basically settled into this comfortable-uncomfortable system where I just make inaccurate projections about what I&#8217;m going to do, and then I miss these projections and then I self-flagellate whatever seems to be a reasonable amount, and then I perpetuate a sort of stasis within this little loop. If there is growth, it feels like it&#8217;s not very much. It feels like&#8230; if I can resolve this problem of estimation and subsequent flagellation, I fell like I&#8217;ll be able to grow and learn and serve others at a much better rate. [1]<\/p>\n<p>I recognize that there&#8217;s a certain hedonic treadmill aspect to this, but I don&#8217;t think I&#8217;m anywhere near the obsessive stage where it&#8217;s clear that I&#8217;m grasping at the straws of diminishing returns. I might seem like it because I&#8217;m writing about it so much, but I&#8217;m writing about it primarily because I&#8217;ve committed myself to writing as much as possible about anything at all, and for the most part I&#8217;ll write about whatever&#8217;s on my mind. So this writing project at the time being is an overplay, an overdoing of sorts. I&#8217;m taking far more effort than reasonable to represent something at much higher fidelity than &#8220;necessary&#8221;. If my only goal in life was to resolve the issue, I&#8217;d probably just shut up and spend all my time working on resolving the issue. But my main goal is to write, and so resolving the issue is something I do as part of the process of writing. It&#8217;s the subject matter I just happened to choose. Or maybe I&#8217;m rationalizing right now? Now that&#8217;s a recursive rabbithole that&#8217;s not worth getting into.<\/p>\n<p>If it&#8217;s not worth getting into that recursive rabbithole, what should I be getting into? I guess just reminding myself of this should suffice. I feel like the first thing that needs to go is the self-flagellation. It&#8217;s part of the equation that maintains the unpleasant stasis that I have grown to dislike, and it also feels like the &#8220;simplest&#8221; thing to eliminate. Simple conceptually\u2013 all I need to do is recognize when I&#8217;m self-flagellating, and stop.<\/p>\n<p>And ask instead, okay, what stopped me from being able to do what I set out to do? What do I need to change so that I can improve my odds of getting it right the next time? How can we try better? Was it unreasonable to hope to do 15 vomits in a day? I don&#8217;t think so. I think the problem was that I woke up late, and that I got distracted at several points, and I hadn&#8217;t paced myself, hadn&#8217;t set targets, hadn&#8217;t been more rigorous. But hey, as a consolation, I&#8217;ve still done more vomits today than on most days. I did 10 yesterday, and 10 again a few weeks ago, and today I&#8217;ve done like&#8230; 7? I&#8217;m just going to keep going until I get sleepy, and then I&#8217;ll go to bed. But I&#8217;m not going to feel bad about it. Shipping is shipping.<\/p>\n<p>_____<\/p>\n<p>[1] This brings me to some side thoughts about what it means to be growing at an optimal rate, and what optimal means. I was also just watching a talk by Doris Kearns Goodwin, who wrote Team Of Rivals\u2013 an excellent tome about Abraham Lincoln&#8217;s life and his Presidency. I read it because Barack Obama mentioned at some point that he was reading it, and it was totally worth it. Great book. Anyway, Doris&#8217;s talk was about life lessons from the Presidents she had studied (Lincoln) and interacted with (Lyndon Johnson), and she talked about how there are 3 parts to life that you&#8217;ll want to invest in\u2013 work, love and play. So I think&#8230; as long as you&#8217;re making an effort on all 3 counts, you&#8217;re probably going to have a reasonably rich and fulfilling life.<\/p>\n<p>Now, I don&#8217;t think it makes sense to be constantly obsessed with trying to optimize things\u2013 I think when you do that, you might be happy WITH your life, but it&#8217;ll be hard to be happy IN your life. That&#8217;s the problem of being obsessively perfectionist, for example. You get all these achievements that you can be proud of, but you&#8217;re never happy, never satisfied. And I definitely want to be happy and calm and fulfilled and magnanimous and laughing and all that. I don&#8217;t need to be the King Of The World or anything like that. I&#8217;m happy to pass that glory on to others. What I do want is to be able to say that I gave myself a good shot. And right now I still don&#8217;t feel like I can say that.<\/p>\n<p>Some of my friends might say some things like, &#8220;Yeah, don&#8217;t push yourself too hard, man.&#8221; Which is a valid concern, and something that I might be guilty of from time to time. THAT SAID, it&#8217;s entirely possible to push yourself too hard sometimes, and then not push yourself enough at all (the term isn&#8217;t as accurate as I&#8217;d like but I&#8217;ll just use it for now). The idea is to find the happy middle\u2013 where you&#8217;re pushing yourself the appropriate amount and enjoying yourself while you&#8217;re at it. It&#8217;s quite tough to really dissect and unpackage that because it&#8217;s very multi-faceted and multi-layered\u2013 probably best to start from first principles. I think I&#8217;ll write my next post about this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I would like to do 9 more vomits before I go to bed tonight, though I recognize that that&#8217;s probably not very feasible. I suppose this is a part of my regular overestimation of myself, which is I think going to be the subject of this particular vomit. I have&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[520],"class_list":["post-9212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-word-vomit","tag-project-management"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>0293 \u2013 get better at estimating (start small) - 1,000,000 words by @visakanv<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/visakanv.com\/1000\/0293-im-bad-at-estimating-for-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"0293 \u2013 get better at estimating (start small) - 1,000,000 words by @visakanv\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I would like to do 9 more vomits before I go to bed tonight, though I recognize that that&#8217;s probably not very feasible. 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